It was nice of Julie Leung to give me a shout out in her blog. Her post also introduced me to Eleua’s Clearcut Bainbridge, whose thesis of an impending massive burst of an Island real estate bubble hit a nerve with me on several levels. Heck, we’ve got a home in Seattle still to sell, I don’t want to hear from bubbles. And the California bashing – well despite a decade in 981xx I’m still a bit sensitive on that topic.
On the other hand, Eleua’s arguments don’t seem to totally hold water. In some ways her alarmist scenario of an up to 75% drop in BI home values gives me comfort, because the accompanying exaggerations and mischaracterizations just help convince me it isn’t going to happen.
First off, she uses the standard device of isolated use of impressive statistics. She claims that Bainbridge real estate is way overpriced and notes our average household income level is only $70K (2000), good for only 24th place out of 522 ranked areas. But, she presents no property value data whatsover, so this information is essentially meaningless. She alarmingly notes BI’s not “#1, or #2, or #3″ but so what? BI’s far from #1, #2, or #3 in home values. In fact to me BI being in the 95th percentile of income sounds about right for our home prices. I’m not saying BI is a paragon of affordability, but her post doesn’t present data that supports the conclusion that it’s way out of whack.
Secondly, homes are not fungible commodities and there’s good reason that affordability is always highly variable across neighborhoods and communities. Some places are more desirable than others, and people will pay more to live there. The reasons vary but BI has many of them including great schools, great open space, and a lack of ugly industrial strip-mall development. And while the ferry commute is less romantic than it sounds, if you work in metro Seattle a walk-on boat ride beats the heck of slogging it out on our congested highways.
Thirdly, if Bainbridge Island is a far cry from La Jolla, Hillsborough, or Martha’s Vinyard – well, I say, that’s just fine and dandy. In fact with all her liberal-bashing it’s hard to see what kind of connection she’s trying to make. If anyone it’s the real estate developers who are prodding BI towards a Hillsborough-manque future, and developers tend to be a rather conservative, Republican-ish bunch, as are quite a few of the ultra-rich folks who live in the actual Hillsborough.
Lastly, I have to confess I feel OK about her hypothetical scenario of materialist immigrants from California, with his-and-her Escalades, who paid too much for a home on BI last year and are destined to get squeezed out next year when interest rates go up and home prices go down. BI is growing fast, too fast in my opinion, and I wouldn’t mind seeing some air let out, and as a result fewer spec homes going up, and fewer people coming to BI for the big house, big view, and 3-car garage, rather than to meaningfully participate in the community. Indeed, despite all her talk-show-esque liberal-bashing, Eleua’s shallow soon-to-be ex-Islanders sound pretty darn Red State to me.
January 19, 2006 at 12:59 am
Hi Bill, long time no see. Some history: “Clearcut Bainbridge” was basically a bumper sticker someone thought up to counter the perceived gentrification of the place. It came out around the time of fund-raising for the Grand Forest purchases. there are still a few faded copies around. Spoke to the hearts of a few people who didn’t want to sell off and move off. As for this new use of the phrase, its interestingly anonymous – but from the quotations (and straw-man reasoning) is probably another one of the Olson clan attempting to make political hay.
Now that you’re here: don’t forget to sign up for trail work: 4th Saturdays, 10-2. BI_Trails@groups.yahoo.com.
January 25, 2006 at 11:59 am
Nice site.
It would be nice if we could all pull up the drawbridge. Too bad we can’t.
I guess it comes down to where you are when the bridge gets pulled.
Listen to the song “Last Resort” by the Eagles. They sing of what happened to California, and that song was made in the ’70s. The same has happend to BI. My family has lived on BI since the ’40s, and in the Westsound prior to statehood. Every year, more and more yuppies destroy more and more of the island.
The only way to keep development from happening on BI is with massive price reductions. Builders will build as long as there is a profit. Once SFHs and condos on BI consistently sell below replacement cost, building will stop.
Unfortunately, all the Hip-n-Trendy neo-Berries will have to associate with the people who can now afford to live on BI (post bubble). The newer residents will be more “old Bainbridge” rather than the x-Cal hip-n-trendy.
Brace yourself for BI to look more and more like Tiburon, California – houses on top of houses. Houses on the beach. Houses over the beach. Houses over the water. Houses on the hill. Houses in the hill.
Traffic on 305 sucks. If you are trying to make a left turn on 305 during ferry traffic – forget it. What makes it worse is developers are trying to turn Poulsbo into a poor-man’s BI. Go to Poulsbo Place and see that development. YIKES! That is the most California-esque development I have seen in the region. Now, phase 2 is underway. Guess what? All the Seattle commuters are going to clog up BI on their way to the ferry.
The good news is all these developments will be underwater very soon. They will sell at fire sale prices, and that should stop further development.
January 25, 2006 at 6:19 pm
[...] Elua replied very calmly and thoughtfully to my criticism of her post on the imminent meltdown in Bainbridge real-estate prices. I give her points for not rising to my bait and attacking me as some kind of liberal nut-case. If even the conservatives on Bainbridge believe in polite discourse, it’s even closer to Paradise than I expected. She did elaborate on her thesis about the economics of development, arguing that “once SFHs and condos on BI consistently sell below replacement cost, building will stop”. [...]
August 14, 2006 at 7:24 pm
I do appreciate your calm response. I don’t see it as a liberal vs conservative issue, so that is why I didn’t respond form a political point-of-view. As it happens, Bainbridge appeals to the aging hippie, rather than clear thinking conservatives, so I guess liberals are “at fault” for carving up the island and building Garagemahals. It could have been conservatives, but it wasn’t.
I am curious about your statement “If even the conservatives on Bainbridge believe in polite discourse…” Is it your experience that your rank-and-file conservative is anathema to polite discourse? I know that Sean Hannity and Mike Savich are not, but they get paid to be abrasive to liberals. I don’t know of any conservatives (other than “professional conservatives”) that are anything other than avuncular with their discussions with people that don’t share their world view. Conservative to conservative conversations can be quite caustic to the absent liberal, but I have never experienced a conservative that was deliberately rude to a liberal without provocation.
On the other hand…
I spent two decades in the clutches of liberals in their education system, and I can tell you that the single rudest segment of the population is the liberal talking to or at a conservative. They throw shame around with alacrity, and a conservative is always guilty of some form of anti-social behavior, just because of their beliefs.
I also have lived around liberals my entire life (with the exception of when I lived just north of Dallas), and it can be quite fatiguing.
The smugness of a self-discribed avant-guard, overeducated, liberal can be quite difficult to digest on a regular basis.